Written by Dave Pustilnik
| 14 January 2010
There seems to be a bit of confusion in terms of the Bulls' cap space. I've already taken a bit of heat from some readers since I said I probably would not take the Celtics' three biggest scrubs with expiring contracts for Kirk Hinrich. Maybe I just hate Scalabrine and Tony Allen that much...maybe it's the playoffs last year...I don't know. But I guess a situation such as this, not just involving the Celtics, truly deserves a closer look.
So where do the Bulls stand in terms of cap space?
Contracts on the expensive side:
- Luol Deng – $11.35 million
- Kirk Hinrich – $9 million
- Derrick Rose – $5.55 million
In 2010, using basic arithmetic, these three players' contracts will add up to $25.9 million.
Other players under contract in 2010:
- Joakim Noah – $3.13 million
- James Johnson – $1.71 million
- Taj Gibson – $1.12 million
These contracts add up to $5.96 million. Combined with the previous expensive contracts, we're at $31.86 million.
In addition:
- The Bulls have Draft Picks — We're looking at a pick somewhere in the mid teens, i.e. a cap hold of $1.2-to-$1.47 million.
- John Salmons — He's got a player option of $5.81 million. Whether Salmons would opt in or out is pure speculation. He's having a down year, so I'd imagine it's in his best interest to opt in, since he may not get a more valuable contract than he currently has based on his current productivity. Then again, someone could potentially offer him a long-term 5 year guaranteed contract of equal or lesser value, which is always a tough option to ignore. You can't really turn down long-term guaranteed money. It's going to be a tough choice for John, but there's no doubt the Bulls will be waiting on the edge of their seats, unless they trade him of course.
- Paying for open roster spots — Chicago will have seven players on the books, eight if Salmons opts in, i.e. they will incur a cap charge of $1.9-to-$2.38 million.
So we're looking at additional costs here between $3.58-to-$9.18, with the actual amount all depending on Salmons's decision.
So now we're at somewhere between $35.44-to-$41.04 million. The NBA has stated, over the summer, that the salary cap will be somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million next season. Most people are assuming a $52.5 million salary cap, so I will use the same figure. So the Bulls, based on the $52.5 million cap, will have $11.1 million in cap space if the Salmons opts in. They will have $17.06 million if he opts out. How much is a max free agent worth next year? Approximately $15.75 million. So if everyone under contract stays, and Salmons opts out, we can sign a max free agent and still have $1.31 million left over. However, if Salmons opts in, after careful calculation seen above, we will not be able to sign a max free agent, because teams are not allowed to go over the cap unless it is to re-sign one of their own free agents. This is called the Larry Bird Exception. What that means is bad news for the Bulls. Never has so much depended on one John Salmons.
So you gotta be asking yourself...what's the Bulls' plan? Well no way are the Bulls sitting there trying to stand pat while their future sits in the hands of John Salmons. They want to trade John Salmons along with his player option as quickly as possible. What this will do is allow the Bulls to avoid having to worry about Salmons opting in, thus automatically putting them at $17.06 mill in cap space, allowing them to sign that one max guy. So then why does Hinrich have to go? Because the Bulls want another max free agent, or near-max free agent. With Salmons gone and Hinrich gone, the Bulls will have $26-27 million in cap space. Two absolutely maximum free agents will cost around $31.5 million next season. But with $27 million, the Bulls can get one max free agent, and another heralded free agent like a Carlos Boozer or David Lee. It is definitely not worth keeping Kirk Hinrich and missing out on second tier free agents such as this if you have the ability to sign them. Plus, elite free agents will be aware of a team's cap space situation, so the ability to bring in a second star-level guy makes that destination that much more attractive. And that is why along with John Salmons, Kirk Hinrich has to go.
Are the Bulls dreaming big right now? Yes, they are. By trying so hard to deal Hinrich, in my opinion, they are making it clear that they want to have the financial freedom to sign a Wade and a Boozer, or a Bosh and a Joe Johnson, or a Wade and David Lee, or...you get the gist. All they have to do is trade away Salmons and Hinrich and the world is your oyster. I know, I know...it's easier said than done. But with that type of move, you make it clear to the free agents that you're getting ready to bring in two elite or close to elite players and sign them to huge deals...and that's usually a good sign to elite free agents, as it shows you are determined to win a championship RIGHT NOW. At the same time, if you deal Hinrich for a bunch of expirings, you basically forfeit your 2009-2010 season. Our backcourt is that thin. Who's going to back up Rose? Lindsey Hunter? Jannero Pargo? Ummmm, no. Without Hinrich, in my humble opinion, the Bulls don't make the playoffs unless they get a decent point guard in return, who can effectively backup Rose as Hinrich does, whose contract also happens to be expiring. And not making the playoffs simply looks bad to any free agent. So dealing Hinrich is not without its downside. But it's a gamble that you absolutely have to take, or you will forever regret that you didn't take it.
Right now, the Bulls are having a difficult time shopping Hinrich, due to his unnecessarily large contract, his poor play (better as of late), and his injury woes. But they MUST find a taker...one elite player makes a difference, but two wins championships. Remember Michael before Scottie? So looking back on the scenario proposed by Simmons, I suppose I would accept Jackie Moon and Tony Allen (UGH) on my team if it meant the very real possibility of signing two max free agents come summertime.
