| 09 March 2010
The Bulls face off against a very tough Utah Jazz squad tonight. It just so happens that the Jazz have won 21 of their last 26 games. Oh boy. They're a rougly .500 road team, so that could give you a little hope, but not a lot. Not against a depleted Bulls squad.
Yet, what I always say is that the NBA is all about matchups. I look at player matchups before I look at records. That's how I knew that the Clippers were going to beat the Bulls every single time (when they had Campby). The matchups against the Jazz aren't horrible. Derrick Rose and Deron Williams, the two best point guards in the NBA, are about as equal of a matchup as you can get. Deron is a more consistent shooter and likes to hit it from the arc. Derrick still can't hit that 3-point shot with any consistency. In fact, he doesn't even really take that shot at all. And they both love to take it to the hole due to the combination of their quickness and strength. Deron Williams is one of the only point guards in the NBA who can come close to matching Derrick's strength. But I do think Derrick is a more prolific scorer and is a little quicker than Deron. For the most part, these two will cancel each other out tonight production-wise. Deron obviously has the edge when it comes to assists, as he's averaging 10.3 assists per game, but I chalk that up to having people around him who can score...mainly Carlos Boozer. If Derrick had a scorer like that in the post, I can easily see his assist numbers being around 9 or 10 a game.
And believe me, Boozer will have himself a game tonight. The man is averaging 20 and 11. I expect him to exceed both of those tonight. While the Bulls did alright rebounding against a Mavericks team whose best rebounder is Jason Kidd, Boozer can be a beast on the glass. Taj Gibson is going to make him work a little bit, but that's about all. There isn't anyone on the Bulls roster right now who's going to keep Boozer off the boards for more than maybe a quarter. That's not to say that Gibson won't have himself a decent game as well. I definitely foresee a double-double tonight from Taj, mostly because the Jazz frontcourt isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. The best shot-blocker on the team is Andrei Kirilenko, and Taj should definitely be able to shove him around a bit.
But let's not forget about Paul Millsap coming off the bench backing up Boozer. This guy is no slouch. He is an effective scorer and a strong rebounder, so Brad/Taj/Hakim (and I suppose Chris Richard) are going to have their work cut out for them pretty much all night, because when Boozer isn't out there, Millsap will be. That means that the Bulls bench is going to have to come out and produce tonight to match the Jazz's production. I'm looking at you Flip Murray and Hakim Warrick. Murray's been in a John Salmons-like slump lately...let's hope he breaks out of it tonight.
There are two other matchups worth watching...
Mehmet Okur vs. Brad Miller. Both are crafty veterans and can do work on the offensive side of the ball. As for defense, I give the edge to Brad Miller and his 10 inch vertical. Brad knows how to play physical and box out. While Mehmet uses his height to get around 7 boards a game, he doesn't really have a nose for the ball and I definitely think Brad is much more crafty around the glass. And both like to launch from the arc...but Brad's three point shooting is incredibly streaky. Some night's he's on fire, other night's it looks like he's shooting with his eyes closed. Tonight...it needs to be the former.
The other interesting matchup will be Luol Deng vs. Kirilenko. Deng is a big question mark. He probably had the worst game of his career on Saturday night. That's not an exaggeration. Only 6 points and 3 rebounds in 37 minutes. How is that even possible? On top of that, he didn't practice yesterday due to flu-like symptoms. So who knows if he's even available tonight. If not, I expect James Johnson to have about 12 turnovers tonight, because Kirilenko is very active on defense. If Deng plays, Kirilenko will have a tough time guarding him because Lu is a tough matchup due to his scoring ability and his length. But with the knee giving him problems lately and having the flu, who knows what his story will be tonight. I already can hear the Bulls masses beginning to question his testicular fortitude.
Other than that, I expect absolutely nothing from Kirk Hinrich...and you should too. He'll have a good shooting night once every 5 or 6 games, but what good is that. Anyway...he just used up one of his good shooting nights on Saturday in the loss to Dallas, so he's due to take the night off. Just go out there and don't let Deron take you to the hole...and stop turning your ankles twice a game.
Prediction: Bulls lose 98-90. While the matchups are alright, I give the edge to the Jazz mostly due to no one really being able to counter Boozer's production. Also, Deng being a question-mark doesn't help the Bulls' cause. If the Bulls do pull off the win, it'll be due to huge nights from Derrick Rose and Brad Miller. When you're relying on Brad Miller to pull out victories...you can't really hold your breath. This will be 5 losses in a row, and the Bulls will likely move into the 9th seed by night's end. Life without Joakim Noah continues...
